International research: Which countries will hit the Ebola virus until the end of October 2014
Intense concern has begun to spread in Europe, North America and Asia after the first three cases of the virus were diagnosed outside of West Africa, Texas and Spain.
Although even the threat of the virus spreading in America is very low, it is very easy to show through air travel new outbreaks of Ebola virus and other countries.
The Ebola virus so far
"Historically germs traveling. The problem is that now they can travel with the speed of an airplane, "says Professor of the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan Howard Marcellus in New York Times.
Researchers at «Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems» Northeastern University in Boston, calculated which countries have the highest risk of 'importing' Ebola virus until the end of October.
Note that this risk relates to the emergence of individual incidents rather than the likelihood of an outbreak. To form this prediction, scientists studied air travel and types of travel from the affected areas.
This risk relates to the emergence of individual incidents rather than the probability of an outbreak
The provision will change as the number of trips from dangerous areas, reduced because of Ebola. The specified table does not include reductions have occurred. "The travel ban to and from the affected areas of the virus (80% reduction in traffic) simply provides a delay of 3-4 weeks of the international spread of the" note the researchers.
The researchers also point out that a wide spread of the virus in most countries in the table are unlikely. "A large outbreak of the virus which has more than 10 patients, although it is possible, may be considered rare 'note. The data show that "effective management and isolation of cases, the number of patients is limited by Ebola, and reduces the risk of losing control and we have an epidemic."
With effective management and isolation of cases, the number of patients is limited by Ebola
The Ebola raging in West Africa in recent months mainly because the health system of the countries do not have the equipment to reduce the disease.
So far over 4,000 people have died in the worst appearance of the virus so far, over 8,000 people have been infected in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, among 401 health care workers, of which 232 resulted. The disease starts with flu-like symptoms and escalates with internal and external bleeding and collapse of institutions.