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Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Philippines-Possible super typhoon may hit PHL on Thursday

Weather forecasters have advised residents of the Bicol and Eastern Visayas regions to prepare for a cyclone approaching from the east that may have the makings of a super typhoon.

The US 
 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) defines a "super typhoon" as having maximum sustained winds of 234 kph or more. 
The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said Tuesday morning that the cyclone, internationally codenamed Haiyan, may grow progressively more powerful until at least Nov. 7, Thursday.
On Tuesday morning CNN made a forecast that Haiyan could be at super typhoon strength by the time it strikes the central Philippines. The CNN forecast said the super typhoon could hit the Bicol region.

GMA News' resident meteorologist Nathaniel Cruz shared with GMA News Online on Tuesday that as early as now, disaster preparedness officials must advise residents of Bicol and Eastern Visayas that Haiyan could hit their areas at typhoon strength at the very least.

PAGASA defines a super typhoon as one having maximum winds greater than 200 kph.

Cruz said the coming cyclone is expected to be a typhoon by the time it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

He added that "the crucial period to monitor is that time frame before the typhoon makes landfall."

Cruz explained that in coming forecasts, weather conditions could change "that could either make the cyclone stronger or weaker." He noted though that current forecasts show the cyclone gaining strength and may become a super typhoon.

GMA News' resident meteorologist said the cyclone could weaken "if the cold and dry winds of the northeast monsoon interact with the typhoon." Cruz said the amihan winds will have the effect of cooling down the typhoon, which draws its strength from warm water and winds.

US Navy forecast as of Tuesday morning
In its early Tuesday (Manila time) update, the JTWC said Haiyan may pack winds of 75 knots (138.9 kph) by Tuesday, and 95 knots (175.94 kph) by Wednesday Manila time.
Haiyan's winds were projected to continue intensifying, with winds reaching as high as 130 knots (240.76 kph) by 6 p.m. of Nov. 7, or Nov. 8 Manila time, before weakening to 115 knots (212.98 kph) at 6 p.m. of Nov. 8 or Nov. 9 Manila time.

The JTWC forecast said their forecast "wind radii (is) valid over open water only."
Nathaniel Cruz explained that the typhoon forecast must be continually updated to take account of changing conditions, so that areas in the path of cyclone will be properly advised with the right information.
Earlier Tuesday, PAGASA forecaster Fernando Cada said Haiyan is moving westward at 20 kph and may make landfall over Eastern Visayas or Bicol.
Once Haiyan enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it will be codenamed Yolanda.
It may then affect the Samar provinces and possibly Bicol, Cada added.
Cada said the cyclone may also affect Mimaropa (Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan) Thursday or Friday.  — KG/TJD, GMA News

November 5, 2013 7:25am

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